ASIC said on 30 October that it was not currently persuaded retail prediction markets were in the public interest. Chair Sarah Court described highly speculative contracts whose payoff depends on an event’s binary outcome, sometimes involving weather or sport rather than investment activity. The statement questions their classification as investment products.
The regulator identified risks involving confidential information, manipulation and disputes about settlement outcomes. It warned that Australians accessing offshore prediction markets online lack Australian-law protections, while Australian financial services licensees facilitating such access remain subject to their full licence obligations.
ASIC linked its approach to its treatment of binary options, which were barred from retail distribution in 2021 and later subject to an extended ban. Under section 798A of the Corporations Act, public interest is a consideration when granting an Australian market licence. The new statement sets out that assessment framework and concerns; it does not itself create a fresh prohibition on all prediction markets.
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